Short-term and operative prediction of earthquakes.

Предсказание землетрясений мониторингом волны Козырева-Ягодина.

(английский вариант статьи)

Technique of definition of key parametres of the future earthquakes

by monitoring of the Kozyrev-Yagodin wave.

In many laboratories of the world conduct studies in search of the exact methods for earthquake prediction. They base their research on harbingers of the earthquake, which gave good results in the past.

However some harbingers are locally connected with the place of the future earthquake, and some indicate about earthquake which will happen far from the place that the harbinger was detected in, and long after the detection time.

Seismologists and biologists often addressed for help to animals, with hope that they can predict earthquakes. Usually the animal’s reaction is connected with painful sensations caused by infrasound, the abnormal behavior of some animals is connected with these painful sensations. However an « average statistical animal» is unlikely to show a strong visible reaction.

By analyzing researches’ results on studying anomalies in the behavior of separate animals, the author found a mathematical dependence between the time interval from the beginning of reaction of an animal and the time of the beginning of the subsequent earthquake, depending on the distance between the animal and epicenter of the earthquake. Processing of the correlation of these sizes spoke about presence of a wave which moves from periphery to a place of epicenter of the future earthquake. This data are presented in the Knesset of Israel in 2005 and have been approved by experts.

Similar dependence has been noticed by data from Charlotte King's site which conducted researches scientists in California.

This opening has explained the reason of failure of the Chinese scientists which connected a place of earthquake with a place of abnormal reaction of animals while they reacted to the passing infrasonic wave speaking about the future earthquake …, but far from a site of an animal.

Simultaneously with carrying out of skilled works with animals, the author spent supervision over clouds which he named "Heralds", has defined the reason of their occurrence and physical model of their formation - (wavy distribution of density of small particles under the influence of an infrasonic standing wave).  

The author has registered correlation of these clouds with the subsequent earthquakes in a direction which was specified by "Heralds" (perpendicularly to lines of clouds). It suggested all that the required wave should possess following parameters:

1. To Move towards epicenter of the future earthquake with speed of an order of 100 km/hour.

2. To Possess properties of a superficial wave.

3. Earth crust Fluctuations should occur on sound and infrasonic frequencies.

In these conditions, it was easy to pick up the sensor and to detect this wave. To do this, a sensor that did not register earthquakes itself, but gave an electrical signal proportional to the amplitude of (gravity-seismic) of low and infrasonic frequencies vibrations was created.

The author conducted a continuous demonstration test recording signal for three days at two locations separated by a 5 km distance from each other to resolve local technical noise.

The records of the both stations were identical with a slight shift of peaks on the time schedule.

According to the proposed linear relationship between the time of registration of the peak and the start of the corresponding earthquake on the distance between the sensor and the epicenter of this earthquake the schedule has been plotted and the correlation of these parameters has been calculated.

The dependence of the difference in arrival time of the wave and the start of shocks of the corresponding earthquake from the distance sensor to location of the epicenter of this earthquake, gave a correlation of 0.99, indicating the mathematical formula dependence of these parameters.

The author called this wave the Kozyrev - Yagodin  wave (KaY-wave)  by the author’s name (Yagodin) and N.A.Kozyrev, the name of the great Russian astronomer, who predicted the relationship of the tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon, and that is of great importance in the genesis of earthquakes and the formation of this wave.

On an example of the Chinese earthquake on September, 7th it is well visible, as the wave has passed station in Haifa and in 66 hours has reached the places in China where has created the earthquake.

The following records are shown from two stations, where the possibility of determining the direction of the wave front to the epicenter of the future earthquakes, using the registration KaY-waves at neighboring stations is clearly visible.

Sequential passing of the KaY-wave front through the station in the wave moving in the direction of the future earthquake epicenter.

When the wave moves to Greece, at first the peaks of the wave are recorded at the station in Nesher and then in Haifa.

When the wave moves in the opposite direction (to the East), at first the peaks of the wave are recorded in Haifa, and then in Nesher.

The results illustrate the absolute accuracy and stability of the method of the calculation formula, because the data did not change during the whole period of studies (from 2005 to 2012).

This suggests the possibility of using these stations with the outlined sensors for determining the direction of the KaY- wave front and predictions of forthcoming earthquake parameters. Knowing the time of the occurrence of the wave peaks on the sensors and their coordinates and velocity of the wave, it is easy to calculate the arrival time of waves in the epicenter point of the forthcoming earthquake and the onset of the earthquake.

The graduated graph of the relation of the peak amplitude on the sensor and the magnitude of the earthquake is constructed and correction factors are calculated at the real peaks and the related following earthquakes.

in 2005 the method was presented at the session of the Knesset Committee on Science.

In 2006, the discovery and the method and were approved by the EC of the RAS and it was recommended proceeding with the research in this area.

The method has been many times presented by the author alone and in collaboration with the Academy of Civil Protection of the Ministry of Emergency Situations at seminars and conferences on humanitarian operations in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Tel-Aviv in 2009-2011.

In 2012 on the results of Expertise of the RAS, the discovery of the Yagodin- Kozyrev wave (KaY-wave), "Heralds"  wave-precursors has been confirmed and the test of earthquake prediction in real-time was praised.

“…

The records of the anomalies related to the Kozyrev-Yagodin's waves (KaY-wave) and the research observation of the fish behavior prior to the earthquake along with the observation of the clouds for the last days have had an impressive effect. First of all, in terms of the successful prognosis of the earthquake on 19 June, 2012 M 5,9 in the area of South-East Turkey and the afterwards seismic development in this area of the Mediterranean…. Prof. Alexey Nikolaev,  Chairman of the Board.”